If the claim were true, we would not expect excess mortality to so closely match COVID-19 death. Excess mortality refers to levels of death that exceed the statistically expected rate of death in normal conditions.
You can find data on reported COVID-19 death for many countries here:
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths
And here you can find data on excess death:
https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid
For countries that effectively record deaths, you will find the curves are a very close match.
Early in the pandemic, counts were based on a positive test. This was the best way to distribute data rapidly so that trends could be spotted as quickly as possible.
It was April 7, 2020 when Deborah Birx said "If someone dies with COVID-19, we are counting that as a COVID-19 death."
Soon after, Federal and State agencies gradually updated their policies to rely on the death certificate, where they rely on individual doctors to use their best clinical judgement about what contributed to the death.
Many states updated past figures using the new method. For example, Colorado in May 2020: https://www.coloradoan.com/story/news/2020/05/16/colorado-changes-how-coronavirus-deaths-state-counted/5198485002/
In April, 2021, the CDC published a study examining the accuracy of Covid-19 mortality surveillance:
"Among death certificates from calendar year 2020 listing COVID-19 and at least one other co-occurring diagnosis, the documentation is consistent with these deaths being attributable to COVID-19. Specifically, in 97% of 357,133 death certificates with COVID-19 and at least one other diagnosis, the documented chain-of-event and significant contributing conditions were consistent with those reported in clinical and epidemiologic studies to occur among patients with severe COVID-19–associated outcomes."
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7014e2.htm (2021-04-09)
"If a certifier determines that a condition did not cause or contribute to the death, it should not be reported on the death certificate." - CDC
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/covid19/faq.htm
How are COVID-19 deaths counted? It’s complicated
https://www.aamc.org/news-insights/how-are-covid-19-deaths-counted-it-s-complicated (2021-02-18)
CDC Guidance for Certifying Deaths Due to Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19):
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/vsrg/vsrg03-508.pdf (April 2020)
True, but these death certificates are generally considered to be incomplete.
"Only 5.5% of death certificates had COVID-19 without any other conditions listed. Attributability of death to COVID-19 could not be evaluated for these death certificates and represents an opportunity for improvement in documentation."
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7014e2.htm (2021-04-09)
UK reports COVID-19 deaths based on a positive test within 28 days on their near-real-time dashboard at https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk
But weekly data is based on the death certificate: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales
This is explained here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/deathssolelyfromcovid19ratherthandeathswithin28daysofapositivetest
The above page also includes the weekly death figures based on two metrics - "deaths due to COVID-19" (where COVID-19 was an underlying cause of death), and "deaths related to COVID-19" (where COVID-19 was mentioned anywhere on the death certificate).
False, with an exception.
The notes on the eidemiology update (https://health-infobase.canada.ca/src/data/covidLive/Epidemiological-summary-of-COVID-19-cases-in-Canada-Canada.ca.pdf) clearly state: "Starting April 7, 2022, British Columbia reports all deaths within 30 days of a positive COVID-19 test, regardless of the cause of death. As a result, deaths are now over-estimated for BC and should not be directly compared to other jurisdictions or to earlier data from BC."
BC data from before April 7, 2022 and data from all other jurisdictions are based on the actual cause of death.
BC will still be determining the actual cause of death, but this will be processed more slowly to reduce manual processing burden. https://news.gov.bc.ca/releases/2022HLTH0116-000522
On Wednesday March 9, 2022, the Ontario governent announced they were changing how COVID-19 deaths were counted, because Omicron resulted in a larger number of infections leading to an increased number of deaths where COVID-19 infection was incidental. The change was retroactive and resulted in a reduction of 411 deaths from the count.
"On March 11, 2022, the count of COVID-19 deaths was changed to exclude fatal cases of COVID-19 where the cause of death was found to be unrelated to COVID-19"
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid19-ontario-march-11-1.6381330 (2022-03-11)
"The Omicron variant required a review of our reporting, and we have already made changes to clarify between hospitalization and ICU admissions reporting to stratifying those admitted for COVID-19 versus admission for non-COVID reasons and tested positive with COVID."
https://globalnews.ca/news/8669357/ontario-remove-incidental-covid-deaths/ (2022-03-09)
"Data from other jurisdictions suggested that with the very high Omicron case counts, some people with COVID-19 infection were dying from causes unrelated to their COVID-19 infection."https://globalnews.ca/news/8669357/ontario-remove-incidental-covid-deaths/ (2022-03-09)
Before April 7, 2022, COVID-19 death counts in BC were based on the cause of death on the death certificate. Starting April 7, 2022, BC initially considers all deaths within 30 days of an individual's first positive test is counted. The figures are updated weeks to months later to remove cases where COVID-19 is not mentioned as a contributing factor on the death certificate.
Provincial press release:
https://news.gov.bc.ca/releases/2022HLTH0116-000522
BC COVID-19 deaths are probably UNDERREPORTED:
"...if someone had a lab-confirmed case of COVID-19 in August 2020, got sick again in August of this year and was hospitalized, tested positive and died from the virus, that person would not be counted, since it was well in excess of 30 days since their first positive test."
https://bc.ctvnews.ca/politics-resources-or-policy-why-b-c-may-be-dramatically-underreporting-covid-19-deaths-1.6117045 (2022-10-19)
"B.C. continues to have more excess deaths than any other province, per capita, according to the latest data from Statistics Canada"
https://bc.ctvnews.ca/politics-resources-or-policy-why-b-c-may-be-dramatically-underreporting-covid-19-deaths-1.6117045 (2022-10-19)
"...even hospitalized patients with symptoms are only tested for the virus if it would changed their course of treatment."
https://bc.ctvnews.ca/politics-resources-or-policy-why-b-c-may-be-dramatically-underreporting-covid-19-deaths-1.6117045 (2022-10-19)
Prior to March 15, 2022, COVID-19 deaths in Manitoba were counted based on having "a clinically compatible illness, unless there is a clear alternative cause of death that cannot be related to COVID disease (e.g. trauma)."
https://www.gov.mb.ca/health/publichealth/surveillance/covid-19/resources/Notes.html
Starting March 15, 2022, COVID-19 deaths in Manitoba are counted based on having a "laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases who have died 30 days after the earliest specimen collection date in the most recent investigation; or where COVID-19 infection was diagnosed post-mortem."
"Quebec and Manitoba take great pains to count pandemic fatalities, often doing post-mortem testing if someone had possible symptoms, resulting in very few excess deaths and higher COVID-19 death rates."
https://bc.ctvnews.ca/politics-resources-or-policy-why-b-c-may-be-dramatically-underreporting-covid-19-deaths-1.6117045 (2022-10-19)
"Quebec and Manitoba take great pains to count pandemic fatalities, often doing post-mortem testing if someone had possible symptoms, resulting in very few excess deaths and higher COVID-19 death rates."
https://bc.ctvnews.ca/politics-resources-or-policy-why-b-c-may-be-dramatically-underreporting-covid-19-deaths-1.6117045 (2022-10-19)